Do you Really have to Win Pennsylvania?

Written by: Alan Willis on Mar 9, 2008 11:41 AM EDT

Pennsylvania is an important state, no doubt about it. But here's what Mark Nevins from the Clinton Campaign there said "You can't really expect to win the general election if you can't win Pennsylvania." 

    Now, let's put this to the test of logic. First, we note that John Kerry won Pennsylvania in 2004, and George Bush won the general election.

    Ok, so let's grant that Nevins probably meant that a Democrat could not win the general election without Pennsylvania. He was, however, clearly applying his statement about winning of Pennsylvania to the primary to be held there in April. In doing so, he implied that a Democrat could not win the general election if they could not win the Pennsylvania primary against another Democrat. This suggests that all the Democrats in Pennsylvania who vote for Obama in the primary would abandon the party for John McCain if Clinton wins the nomination, or that all the Democrats there who vote for Clinton in the primary would abandon the party for McCain should Obama be the nominee.

      I don't think either is likely. The same is of other vital Blue states. Illinois isn't likely go to McCain if Clinton is the nominee just because Obama carried it in the primary season. Similarly, Massachusetts isn't likely to go to McCain if Obama is the nominee.

      I understand that Nevins is trying to help his candidate win the Pennsylvania primary. But implying the direct translation to November is dangerous. All this talk about Democratic in fighting is dangerous, and a bit wrongheaded. In the end, the people excited about the Obama candidacy or about the Clinton candidacy are not going to abandon the party for McCain. The question is who is capable of continuing to build the excitement (especially among new voters) and who can win back for the Democrats those who abandoned the party to vote for Reagan. That's what will determine a Democrats ability to win in November, not the winning or loosing of the Pennsylvania (or Illinois, or Massachusetts, or ...(fill in the state)) primary.

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