Fairness, Math, and Primary Realities

Written by: David Reiter on Apr 6, 2008 12:13 PM EDT

It is still possible for either Obama or Clinton to win the Democratic Primary. Here is what needs to happen for one or the other to win. The race is not over, and all voters need to make sure they continue the pattern of record turnouts and vote for their candidate.

First, the math:

Number of Delegates to win the nomination: 2,024 Remaining Delegates: 914

Current Delegates

Obama: 1,629; Needed to win: 395; % of remaing delegates needed to win: 43.2%

Clinton: 1,486; Needed to win: 538; % of remaining delegates needed to win: 58.8%

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Realities:

Clinton would have to have landslide victories in each of the remaining 10 contests and receive almost 60% of the remaining Super Delegates to win. As a result, it is highly unlikely that she can win, even if the Florida and Michigan delegates were seated as is. Obama only needs to win a contest or two to ensure his nomination, or just make sure he does not lose each contest by more than 15%. As a result it is very likely that Obama will be the next Democratic nominee.

Fairness:

Michigan cannot be seated as is. Only Clinton was on the ballot, and her campaign's insistence on seating them as is shows a genuine disregard for simple fairness. Without a revote in Michigan, or some sort of caucus ofrsimilar activity, I do not see how a credentials committee will allow them to be seated as is.

It can be argued that Florida's votes should count, because we had a record turnout. That being said, Obama has not had a chance to campaign in Florida and had very little name recognition in comparison with former First Lady, Clinton. Both states would obviously like their voices to be heard and have impact on the nomination, but a fair option for both candidates has not yet been presented to the DNC.

Even if all delegates were seated unfairly as is, Clinton would still be trailing Obama. If Obama can win a just a couple races and gain half the remaining Super Delegates, he will meet the 2,024 threshhold needed for the nomination without Michigan or Florida being counted. If Florida and Michigan are not counted until the Convention, it is mathmatically almost impossible for Clinton to secure the nomination, because Obama will be first to reach the 2,024 threshhold without the 2 states--Clinton requires those 2 states--as is--to have a chance. However, as is, is not fair or likely to happen.

No matter who gains the nomination, we should all rally behind that person because McCain would be a further disaster. To vote for McCain in protest or "because you don't know Obama well enough," or 'Hillary is too much of a 'B'," is a cop out. Check into Obama's website and learn about him if you don't feel you know him enough. Know that Clinton will not appoint super right-wing judges to the Supreme Court, will have a good economic team, and will have better judgement than McCain. It is the media's and Republican's best interest to sow seeds of divisiveness within the Party--we just cannot let that happen with some silly, shoot-yourself-in-the-foot strategy of withholding your votes from either Dem. nominee.

In either case---we must come together and vote for the Democratic nominee in November because our future depends on it!

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