Dean is first and that's the truth.

Diebolds are last  - more truth

I agree with Indy and Phil about the diff between BO and HC.  Hope for what?  What are you offering?  Details please.  He seems to appeal to magical thinking....hope for it and it'll happen.

The si, se puede also appeals to the Latinos.  He knows that.  He's very good at hooking people in and is manipulative. 

If the fix isn't in for HC, then I think BO should hook up soon with JE.  Then Edwards can back out at the appropriate moment, giving BO the edge and the votes.  The alternative is to let HC have it.

JE is not a spoiler; he's the most sincere candidate IMO.   And I predict that his numbers will rise fast now as people begin to hear him.

BO and HC will try now to sound just like JE.  They know he's a threat, once the CM starts giving him face time.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080110/ap_po/richardson_4

AP: Richardson ends presidential bid

By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer

10 minutes ago

...

Linda, good analysis!  Please keep coming back.

People get behind those whom they think will win.  Everybody loves a winner, right?  Except that BO may lose to HC unless JE gets out.  

rd - I hope he breaks for Obama.

from his mouth to your ears.  We already have a prez who lies.  Do we want another?  Ambitious, isn't he?

************************* 

MR. RUSSERT: There’s been enormous speculation about your political future, Senator. The man you succeeded in the Senate, Peter Fitzgerald, a Republican, said this recently. “I think there’s a very good chance that Senator Obama is on the Democratic ticket in 2008 as the vice presidential nominee.” Do you agree?

SEN. OBAMA: No.  You know, I can’t speculate on those kinds of things. What I have said is that, you know, I’m not focused on running for higher office, I’m focused on doing the job that the people of Illinois just sent me to do.

MR. RUSSERT: But there seems to be an evolution in your thinking. This is what you told the Chicago Tribune last month: “Have you ruled out running for another office before your term is up?” Obama answer: “It’s not something I anticipate doing.” But when we talked back in November of ‘04 after your election I said, “There’s been enormous speculation about your political future. Will you serve your six-year term as United States senator from Illinois?” Obama: “Absolutely.”

SEN. OBAMA: I will serve out my full six-year term. You know, Tim, if you get asked enough, sooner or later you get weary and you start looking for new ways of saying things. But my thinking has not changed.

MR. RUSSERT: So you will not run for president or vice president in 2008?

SEN. OBAMA: I will not.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/10909406/ 

Hotline thinks Richardson will endorse Hillary prior to Nevada.

7.

No surprise there.

Well, seashell - let's just keep replaying all the wonderful things Edwards supported - the war, Patriot Act, etc prior to his supposed conversion. Who is more of an opportunist? Besides Howard, Gore and Feingold - there are very few purists.

I think ballot counting should be required of the citizenry just like jury duty. Every election from local to national, citizens would be called upon to perform their civic duty to keep the elections honest. What better way to get the masses involved with their own democracy?

"Democracy is not something you have, democracy is something you do"...Doris "Granny D" Haddock

8.

Hotline thinks Richardson will endorse Hillary prior to Nevada.

+++

No surprise there, since the SEIU union Nevada chapter (comp[osed mostly of hispanic workers) endorsed Obama earlier today.  Richardson is contraweight for Hillary appealing to those same folks.

Unbelievable!  The pundits can't figure out what happened and now are blaming the youthful posters or the voters lying.

Doesn't it ever occur to them that maybe during the exit polls, the votes were being switched?  What is wrong with this CM?

Oh, that's why. 

6.

Circumstances can change in people's lives. Don't think that will be held against Barack.

Can't tell you how many times in my life I've said I absolutely would not do something and turn right around and do it.

Maybe a state like Ohio, which had huge descrepencies in 2004 between exit polls and (actual?) votes, should implement a system of hand counting first.
They could even use the slogan...
"Freedom isn't Free...your turn to count"...lol

"follow the leader":

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7fe4cd92-beda-11dc-8c61-0000779fd2ac.html

By John Gapper

Published: January 9 2008 17:53 | Last updated: January 9 2008 17:53

Barack Obama, the 46-year-old Illinois senator, is now in a hard fight with Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. But he has already achieved something with his soaring rhetoric and his promise of change in Washington: the admiration of Americans, Bill Clinton excepted.

Among them are business leaders who must themselves convince shareholders, managers and employees that their companies can and should change. Mr Obama, of all the presidential candidates, is the one from whom chief executives can draw the clearest lessons about leadership.

On paper, if there is any candidate whom business leaders should be following, it is Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and co-founder of Bain Capital, the private equity group. The square-jawed Mr Romney campaigns as a “can-do” guy whose business expertise will help him to shake up Washington.

But Mr Romney has undermined himself by blatantly flip-flopping on issues and speaking with the synthetic charm of a game-show host. Mike Huckabee, a fellow Republican, hit home with his jibe that the voters want a candidate “who reminds them of the guy they work with rather than the guy who laid them off”.

Then there is Mr Obama. Hardly any business leader can hope to match his skill as a speaker. He has displayed perfect pitch in his oratory, including his rejoinder to Mrs Clinton’s barb about “raising false hopes” during his concession speech in New Hampshire: “In the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.”

But Mr Obama has other qualities from which chief executives can learn.

The first is thoughtfulness. The Clintons have laid into him for lacking experience. But he compensates, as Peter Wehner, a former Bush administration official, wrote on the Commentary magazine blog, by “radiating a sense of good judgment”.

Mr Obama gives the impression of having thought deeply about issues and of saying what he really thinks rather than something convenient. That also matters in business, where many chief executives behave as Mr Romney has by spouting nostrums and flipping among strategies rather than sticking to well-considered decisions.

Many employees are like voters – they are disillusioned from having been caught up in too many flawed “change” programmes. They see executives arrive, restructure quickly according to the latest consultant’s advice, fail to achieve much and move on. They have a human yearning to be led by someone they trust.

His second quality is selflessness.

...

I trust Barack Obama.

Speaking of Progressive.. Cindy has upgraded her site....

http://www.cindyforcongress.org/

Hey Sea - not sure where you read about Obama using the Spanish translation of "yes, we can", as you reference in your post.

Yesterday, in Nevada, the Secretary/Treasurer of the Culinary Union used it, not Barack.

http://www.newsday.com/news/local/politi...

Culinary secretary-treasurer D. Taylor praised the senator's work with a sister union in Chicago and said Obama would appeal across the union's diverse ranks. He took a jab at the mostly white electorate that had so far shaped the race in New Hampshire and Iowa.

"We're not just Wonderbread here, we got pumpernickel, we got whole wheat, we got rye. We're excited about that. That's America. That's why Senator Obama excites us and excites the country," Taylor said, following cheers and the union chant "Si se puede."

Obama chanted the English translation, "Yes we can," in his concession speech Tuesday.

Karen and Mary.  If you read the last thread, you'll note that several bloggers were discussing the Obama promise.  I think they may both be BO supporters.

I brought the message over.  But it's something to keep in mind.  They all lie.  Is there a difference between changing one's mind and outright lying.  Did he know he was lying?  Who knows?  I don't.

Started researching 'exit polls' .... if THIS is what they stop you and have you answer - it would take a half hour! and they want to know.....'how often you go to church?"..."what you think of BILL Clinton?".....  incredible.  Maybe they only got exit poll information from people willing to give up their privacey and had extra time on their hands!

Saw on another blog that - although it wasn't put out 'nationwide' - there was a lot of local coverage of some pundits in New Hampshire saying ugly things, including that Hillary should go back to her ironing board, etc.    I can't find the actual news on that yet, but - evidentally it REALLY P.O'd a lot of women.  

Karen I agree with you - circumstances do change decisions. Calling someone a liar is strong language when all of the details are not known.

By the way, it was Dick Durbin, senior Senator from Illinois, and his mentor, that encouraged him to do so (from yesterday's Sun Times political analyst, Lynn Sweet's, blog)

I like to give people the benefit of the doubt. It just makes me feel better as a person.

Like when something is attributed to me that was actually posted by someone else - I chalk it up to just making an error.

Giving people the benefit of the doubt leaves the doors to communication open.

Maybe with McCain as the candidate, we will finially have a discussion about when to go to war.
The old adage about only when attacked isn't good enough. We must fight to defend the rights of others.
So in Darfur or Kenya where each side is slaughtering each other we must intervene or force the UN to intervene and stop the bloodshed. Those that say we must only go when our national interest is at stake are correct. Our national if not mental wellbeing is at stake if we refuse to get involved and ignore the carnage. I feel the same thing about the Israel/Palestine debacle. We must shut it down and stop both sides but especially Israel from slaughtering the Palestinians. Palestine either deserves their own home or full citizenship in the one they are in. Nothing else is acceptable. How about human rights abuses in China and other wage-slave markets? Did Obama blow it by granting Peru NAFTA status while at the same time saying NAFTA has economically hurt many people in developing countries? Every day it gets harder and harder to suggest China enforce human wage and working conditions and some kind of environment control when everyday we eviscerate the problem by sending more of our markets to China. The military is planning for the next Great War and they are planning on this war being against China. I have this discussion several times a week. It is what keeps the military defense establishment going year in and year out. Without China, there is no need for big defense projects. Iran is just a training ground to allow the military, especially the Air Force and Navy, to keep the pressure on Congress to keep the money flowing. China is the motherload for the military.

New Hampshire: So What Happened?

There is obviously one and only one topic on the minds of those who follow polls today. What happened in New Hampshire? Why did every poll fail to predict Hillary Clinton's victory?

Let's begin by acknowledging the obvious. There is a problem here. Even if the discrepancy between the last polls and the results turns out to be about a big last minute shift to Hillary Clinton that the polls somehow missed (and that certainly sounds like a strong possibility), just about every consumer of the polling data got the impression that a Barack Obama victory was inevitable. One way or another, that's a problem.

For the best summary of the error itself, I highly recommend the graphics and summary Charles Franklin posted earlier today. Here's a highlight of how the result compared to our trend estimates:

What we see for the Democrats is quite stunning. The polls actually spread very evenly around the actual Obama vote. Whatever went wrong, it was NOT an overestimate of Obama's support. The standard trend estimate for Obama was 36.7%, the sensitive estimate was 39.0% and the last five poll average was 38.4%, all reasonably close to his actual 36.4%.

It is the Clinton vote that was massively underestimated . . .Clinton's trend estimate was 30.4%, with the sensitive estimate even worse at 29.9% and the 5 poll average at 31.0% compared to her actual vote of 39.1%.

So what went wrong? We certainly have no shortage of theories. See Ambinder, Halperin, Kaus, and, for the conspiratorially minded, Friedman. The pollsters that have weighed in so far (that I've seen at least) are ABC's Gary Langer (also on video), Gallup's Frank Newport, Scott Rasmussen and John Zogby. Also, Nancy Mathiowetz, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) has blogged her thoughts on Huffington Post.

Figuring out what happened and sorting through the possibilities is obviously a much bigger task than one blog post the morning after the election. But let me quickly review some of the more plausible or widely repeated theories and review what hard evidence we have, for the moment, regarding each.

JE's problem is he is not a likeable sort.  No one has ever gotten elected President claiming half of america is screwing the other half.  You might win a democratic primary with that message but not the general election.  Even if its true, the half currently getting screwed all have hopes of moving up and advancing into the upper half and thus don't much enjoy the put downs.  More than 2,000,000 people work in the health care industry and nearly a the same in the drug industry.  Every time he calls them the devil, neither the employee or the families of the employees are going to be inclined to jump on board.  I thought he had such a positive message in 2004, now he just sounds bitter and depressing.  Just my opinion.  Given the group of misfit toys on the Republican side this year I am leaning towards Obama. Unfortunately  I live in a small red state and can't do him any good.

dog soldier that was a very imformative post. thanks - learn so much here!

1) A last minute shift? - Perhaps the polls had things about "right" as of the rolling snapshot taken from Saturday to Monday, but missed a final swing to Hillary Clinton that occurred over the last 24 hours and even as voters made their final decisions in the voting booth. After all, we knew that a big chunk of the Democratic electorate remained uncertain and conflicted, with strong positive impressions of all three Democratic front-runners. The final CNN/WMUR/UNH poll showed 21% of the Democrats "still trying to decide" which candidate they would support, and the exit poll showed 17% reported deciding on Election Day with another 21% deciding within the last three days. Polls showed Clinton polling in the mid to upper 30s during the late fall and early winter before a decline in December. Perhaps some supporters simply came home in the final hours of the campaign.

I did a quick comparison late last night of the crosstabs from the exit polls and final CNN/WMUR/UNH survey. Clinton's gains looked greatest among women and college educated voters. That pattern, if it also holds for other polls (a big if) seems suggestive of a late shift tied to the intense focus on Clinton's passionate and emotional remarks, especially over the last 24 hours of the campaign.

2) Too Many Independents? - One popular theory is that polls over-sampled independent voters who ultimately opted for a Republican ballot to vote for John McCain. I have not yet seen any hard turnout data on independents from the New Hampshire Secretary of State, but the exit poll data does not offer promising data for this theory. As I blogged yesterday, final Democratic polls put the percentage of registered independents (technically "undeclared" voters) at between 26% and 44% (on four polls that released the results of a party registration question). The exit poll reported the registered independent number as 42%, with another 6% reporting they were new registrants. So if anything polls may have had the independent share among Democrats too high.

(more at the link) 

So the race thing is already coming up on Keithie's show.  And I've been thinking more  on this.

My sense, and I hope I'm wrong, is that this country is still so sexist and racist that neither HC nor BO can win.  Oh, people will say that they will vote for a white women or a black man, but, like the person who was reported as being in the booth one hour yesterday, they may change their minds at the last minute.

Woman may choose HC due to any number of reasons, many of them suspect IMO, so she may get the nod.  But sexism will batter her.  BO is gonna be attacked by racists and swiftboaters.  As mainefem said,  it's gonna get real ugly. 

Realistically, looked at it this way, JE may be the only truly electable candidate.

I would love to see, out of what's left of the field, a JE/BO ticket,but I don't think that will happen. 

Sad to say, we live in a truly socially backward country.

Denise~

What are the latest polls in your state saying?

Polls suck, I know. Just curious.

Clinton won by only three percent, and so it's a little tricky to try and attribute her victory to one or another set of characteristics, or forces. But the exit polls did show some clear differences.

 Obama beat her among independents, but only by 10 percent. Clinton, by contrast, won 11 percent more self-described Democrats. Obama won both the secular and the devout, but Clinton captured the votes of the casual churchgoers.

Obama won among those who sought the candidate best able to bring about change, but Clinton won among those who prized experience and populist sympathies. Most importantly, Obama won among men, with 40 percent, where Hillary took a surprisingly low 29 percent.

But Clinton destroyed him among women, with 46 percent. And women, at the end of the day, turned out in much higher numbers, accounting for 57 percent of the total Democratic electorate.

--Ezra Klein

(more at the link) 

Well, that's silly.  Of course either BO or HC could win.  But that wasn't my point.

Too bad it isn't between BO and Boxer. 

Hey all.  Just reading through those polling analyses and thought they might be of interest. 

How about people think they have their minds made up, but in the solitude of a voting booth, change their mind. Or vote the way they really had intended to vote. I have done this, but I suffer from ADD, so my mind and focus changes a lot.

I think ballot counting should be required of the citizenry just like jury duty. Every election from local to national, citizens would be called upon to perform their civic duty to keep the elections honest. What better way to get the masses involved with their own democracy?
____________

My dad has been a precinct captain in Iowa for years and works every election doing just that.  Every ballot that has any problem with it, normally about 20% get spit out by the machine and he and a paid election official and the dem's captian look over each one and count them up and report the count to the election officials downtown, who add up all the precincts in town and send the results to Des Moines.  Go down and volunteer, every twon needs the help.

33.

This doesn't bode well for womens' intellect when they vote for a *gender* instead of a person. 

Karen - as of mid December Hillary was up 49%, Obama 30% and Edwards 15%.

I'll see if I can find something more current.

California has typically been Clinton country, but when Obama was here the past few times he drew huge crowds.

I can remember the last time Edwards was here.

We may have finally seen something that resembles the real HC. It is kind of funny but she raised a huge amount of money, hired everyone possible with a forsale sign aound their neck, spent most of her money in wasted advertising, and at the last minute, ignored her many advisors and went after Obama hard.
She must have had the same group of advisors who told Kerry to ignore the smearvets. Look how well they were for Kerry.
If HC wants to win, she has to keep on getting in BOs face. If she wins the election, she must continue to hammer McCain on his shortcomings.
I don't like her, but I like the idea of a Repub President even less.

Richardson campaign denies withdrawal report

My manager reminded me this morning of something termed "The Bradley Effect" when he and I were discussing the NH results. I had not heard of it but I'm sure the native Californian's here have.

http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/trailhead/a...

Bradley effect
n. the difference between the number of people who vote for a black candidate and those who say they will or would.

29.  Sea, a friend of mine was saying just that....that when the rest of American goes to vote they aren't going to vote for a woman or for a black man.  May be JRE's only hope. 

You know, at the end of the day we can blame the CM, Diebold, etc., but let's face.....waayyy too many people, in their ignorance, voted twice for GWB. 

More California poll results - a bit more current. Not lined up too well, sorry.

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Spread
RCP Average 12/19 to 01/06 - 37.0 30.0 17.7 Clinton +7.0
USA Today/Gallup 01/04 - 01/06 499 A 33 33 20 Tie
Pew Research 12/19 - 12/30 556 RV 46 26 14 Clinton +20.0
Rasmussen (Wed) 4 Day Tracking 750 LV 32 31 19 Clinton +1.0

Yep they did vote for W twice, cc, which is why I was thrilled that my good friend, a staunch Republican and 2 time Bush voter, told me yesterday that she is backing Obama. She does not trust her party anymore. She has big bucks and sent in the max to Obama. I just about fell on the floor. She lives in Houston.

cC - Did you notice from the polling anaylses you posted that Obama received 10% more Indie votes? That bodes well for a general election. You can't just win with Dems.

43.

That's quite a spread, Denise.

But then we all know by now, we can't trust them.

So if BO's pollings numbers were fairly consistent, but HC's were very low, who made up the difference?  Where did HC get her votes?  Is there any theory?

Pundits refuse to look as the  possibility of voting fraud. 

SF Mayor was just on the local news.

Seems he is supporting Clinton. So is Feinstein. We shall see.

Sheesh, make up yer mind! :o)

Richardson to end presidential run

LOL Karen!

20.
Sam,
The research I did has been on the accuracy of exit polls, especially prior to 2000. Also about how Germany hand counts their ballots and the exit polls are within a fraction of a percent from the final tally.

Interestingly in NH last night, Barack did better where hand counting was done, Hillary where Diebold was in place...

http://tailrank.com/4562024/New-Hampshir...

33.cC,
If the exit polls are wrong on the winner, prolly wrong on these numbers too.

I received my ballot in today's mail. I'm going to wait until the weekend to mark it and might open a nice bottle of Chardonnay and make it a celebration.

Denise
Wed, 01/09/08

La Crema 2004, Sonoma Valley product. 

La Crema is awesome. I order it alot for my social events. Rombauer is incredible as well. And if I have extra cash, Cakebread.

I still say we should have DemFest in Napa or Sonoma Valley. It would be one big lovefest and no one would care who was speaking...LOL

I appreciate the tips and will see if they are available here.

One nice thing about global warming, it is turning West Michigan into the midwest Napa Valley. We have maybe two dozen really nice wineries. I cannot drink domestic red wine because the sulphates give me a head ache. But I can drink French and Italian red wines all day.
Fennvalley Winery, in the tiny town of Fennville, Mi makes a delightful red wine without sulphates. The also have a wide selection of whites, rose and fruit wines. We also have a lot of micro-brewries as Michiganders love their beers. There are winetasting events going on all year and beer-brewing-tasting contests for those who prefer their cereal with alcohol.

If you need some Cab and Merlot tips let me know. Any good wine store should carry those. Coppola makes some great wines, too, at a bit of a better price.

Jordan is also good. So is Kunde, Pineridge and J. Lohr

And I don't even drink that much LOL

dog,

My dad and aunt were born in Grand Haven and I still have many relatives in and around that area. Great wines there - just wonderful. Also a bit further south near Sawyer as I recall.

I think we may have discussed this before but Fricano's Pizza (Riverside Pizza in Grand Rapids) are my cousins.