Symbols to the World

Written by: Eric Weis on Nov 7, 2008 12:27 AM EST

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, DFA County Committee Project, BlueWaveNJ, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Millions of words, media images and ideas are in the ether.  Americans have been asked to rate what President-elect Obama should do first.  On the theory that lives count more than words, here are two big ideas.

1.  Send Joe Biden to Egypt and the Sudan, along with a team of selected Grassroots activists.  Deliver a clear message to the family of Ahmed Al-Mirghani, Sudan's former President who died yesterday in Egypt.  Express the condolences of the American people.  Then meet with Sudan President al-Bashir and promise aid if the Darfurian aggression is stopped in 100 days, or promise military intervention (with a beefed up African Union) if hostilities continue.  The Janjaweed are troublemakers and can be snuffed out - and stabilize an oil supply at the same time.  In other words, America can deliver a message immediately that the USA will no longer countenance genocide.

2.  Send Colin Powell to Cuba, along with a team of selected Grassroots activists.  Open negotiations on the normalization of relations between America and Cuba.  Go to Guantanamo and deliver a closing plan to the base commander.  Transfer the inmates to US prisons in Florida, and convene trials with legal representation.  Apply "triage" - execute or incarcerate the criminals, release and repatriate those judged innocent.

These two actions will not bankrupt the US treasury, will not empower our enemies, and will remove some of the talking points used by terrorists.  They are symbols much like the Boston Tea Party, the Emancipation Proclamation, or the launch of the first Mercury missile with Alan Shepherd riding in a small capsule on top.

An Obama administration would get much "bang for the buck" by starting out in this manner.

- Eric

Discuss

The Train is Not Far From the Station, Now

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 30, 2008 2:55 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

If you are like me, you are a nervous wreck approaching Election Day, now 113 hours away as I write these notes.

The polls have consistently been showing a red, Democratic advantage. But somewhere down deep, after two nail-biting (stolen?) elections, it is hard or impossible to believe that the American neo-Conservative agenda that has held the world hostage is now on the verge of going down to defeat.  The ghosts of Alf Landon, Tom Dewey, and yes, even John Kerry, haunt this election.

For a historical perspective:

1936, Alf Landon was predicted to beat incumbent FDR by a whopping margin, 57 to 43 points.  That poll was published on October 31st, based on 2,000,000 postcards submitted to The Literary Digest.  The poll was wrong.  FDR was returned to office.  Remember that it was the time that storm clouds were brewing in Europe.

1948, NY state Governor Thomas E. Dewey was ahead of unpopular incumbent Harry Truman by 5 - 15 points leading up to the election. And yet on election day, Truman eked out a 5% win against Dewey (with Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond collecting 2% of the national vote).

2004, John Kerry.  The polls and predictions gyrated in the week leading up to election day.  In the four days leading up to 11/2/2004, the lead changed two times with Kerry on the bottom on 10/30, then on top 10/31 - 11/1 and then losing by a hair on 11/2.  But a close analysis of the strength of Kerry's support reveal that the states clearly in his column never exceeded 146 electoral votes.  Bush maintained a consistent and growing lead in "strong" EV throughout the entire period.

What lessons can be learned from these ghosts?

(1) The incumbent has fantastic power and appeal, when people go into the voting booth on election day.  The incumbent represents safety and security in an electoral process that always reaches the height of argument on Election Day. It is easy to revert to casting a vote for the President you know.  In 2008, there is no incumbent in the race (not even a Vice President, nor a President's son).  So throw this effect right out of the window. It is not relevant now.

(2) The strength of EV (based on predicted vote margin) can be a good measure of outcomes.  At the moment, Obama is considered to have 254 "strong" electoral votes, not quite enough to get to 270 (only 16 away) and down from his peak of 264 strong EV.  The difference is Wisconsin, where the race seems to be tightening (10 EV).  It is now in the "leaning Democratic" column. Obama's strong numbers have been fairly consistent for the past week (254 - 264). On top of his strong numbers, there are 121 weak or barely Democratic EV to be collected from nine states.  McCain would have to "run the table" of these states to take away the 16 needed by Obama to get over the top.

On the other side, McCain's strong EV has been trending down over the last week, from a high of 134 to 118 as of today.  He has lost Arizona and Mississippi, now leaning Republican, but not sure.  Who, in their right (Republican) minds would ever have imagined close races in McCain's home state, or in the heart of the Red South?

Well, I am the eternal pessimist. I have to force myself to adopt an optimistic viewpoint.  But with 113 hours to go, unless a huge late October surprise erupts to unsettle Americans and take their minds off the economy, it sure looks like the Blue Train is going to get into this station first, on Track #1.

Meanwhile, for a look at how the Conservative punditocracy is reacting, here is a Huffington Post column featuring George Will.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/george-will-castigates-mc_n_139210.html

Tonight, I make phone calls to Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado or wherever else the campaign wants me to call.  I hope that readers of these blogs, essays, are going out to do the same thing.  Keep your head down and pump for the finish line like you are Usain Bolt trying to set a new world record. 

And if you by any chance remain undecided, just imagine what your children will say when they ask who you voted for.  Our kids, the young of America, strongly want Barack Obama to be their next leader.  A Presidential poll by the Weekly Reader (which has been successful 12 out of 13 times in the past) shows that kids in grades K - 12 believe Obama will win in a landslide, 55 to 43%.  That poll has been said to reflect the views of people in their own homes, speaking in front of their children.

Think positively.  Reject fear. Isn't that how kids naturally act?  We could take a lesson from them.

- Eric

Discuss

The Tax Attack - Deja Vu All Over Again

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 28, 2008 12:20 AM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

This evening, listening to the rain-delayed World Series game, a McCain campaign ad played on the radio.  It ought to make the middle class shiver with fear. Of course, that is its purpose.

In the ad, the two principal claims made are that (1) Obama is going to tax anyone earning $42,000 or more, and that (2) Obama and his liberal cabal are getting ready to spend $1 trillion and drive our country further into economic hell.

So, I researched it and here is what I came up with on the $42,000 claim.

So, John, please run that by me again. Who is going to be raising taxes on the middle class? 

As for Obama's dreaded $1 trillion dollar spending binge....

Gee, John, where are you going to find this money?  You aren't going to tax the wealty or business, are you?  Perhaps a national sales (VAT) tax?  Middle class, forget about Christmas, Easter and Thanksgiving.  Hang on to that coal around Halloween. We may need it to heat our homes.

Whoever the next President is, he is locked into a federal government which is already spending way beyond its means.  And who got us into this pickle?  A 40 year graph of national debt as % of GDP, shows that our debt% increased under Reagan, Bush41, declined under Clinton and then resumed its climb under Bush43.  It is now approaching 72%, rivalling the post World War II levels around 1950.

The debt will continue to increase.  One candidate (the blue one) is saying that he won't tax the middle class and the facts seem to bear him out. The other nominee (the red one) is saying that the opposing candidate (the blue one) will rape the middle class, because he (the red one) cannot talk about his own disastrous economic policies. Finger pointing is the only strategy left.

It's really just the old shell game.  Is McCain moving those shells quickly enough, or can we still tell which shell has the nut under it? I've been watching the shells, and am picking the blue one, because it seems to have stayed in pretty much the same place during the entire game.

- Arctic Eric

Discuss

Security and Compassion, Who's On First?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 24, 2008 11:53 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, DFA County Committee Project, BlueWaveNJ, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

It may surprise you to know that I am not a total progressive, if by that term is meant having an almost total aversion to war.  I believe in justifiable war.  I despise wars which are executed poorly.  We had no business getting into Iraq, but once we were there, we should have done the job right.  Get in, get out and have a Marshall Plan with plenty of chocolates and chewing gum.

So now McCain is focussing again on the security issue.  It may be the only card with any value left in his hand.  Here is my take on it.  It is my belief that Barack Obama will be a Richard Nixon in reverse.  Nixon was able to open up China, despite his personal flaws (which in retrospect pale in comparison to present administration).  I believe that Obama will be surprisingly tough.  His father, grandfather, mother and maternal grandparents were all made of very stern stuff.  So is he. Otherwise Obama would not be in the position he is in.  Unlike midshipman McCain, Barack Obama had no father or grandfather to pave his way.

McCain's latest attempt to exploit Joe Biden's comments on security are just that - an attempt.  Biden could be right about a possible challenge to our security in the first term.  But it is equally possible that there will be no challenge as the world catches its breath. And it is also possible that an Obama presidency would start off with a demonstration of toughness (in Afghanistan, Pakistan or elsewhere). 

The presence of an ex-Navy flier in the White House does not in and of itself preclude a challenge.  It can be argued that there are forces in the world which would be happy to force limited conventional war upon the US, to stretch our already strained military as a way to bring the Empire down more quickly.  In any case, our allies have clearly demonstrated a preference for an Obama administration.  It is logical that they too want improved global stability and security.  A volatile, argumentative, irritable US President is not reassuring, and may well be an ingredient for reduced security.  If you are a terrorist and want more war, and if you feel that you are winning the war of will, then an impulsive fighter in the White House is an answer to your prayers.

Security is only part of the current news cycle.  The Palin/McCain campaign is exerting pressure on the old theme of compassionate conservatism.  It is said that they will repair the failed Bush agenda by funding it.  Hmmm, and just how does that impact a federal budget? So it is not only the Democrats who will spend us into silly oblivion, now we can rest assured that the compassionate GOP will also go for the gold.   But if you shout DEMOCRATIC SPENDERS long enougn and loud enough, the mud sticks.  We just need to hose it off and, with it, expose the rust underneath the new Republican facade - just a re-run of old tactics.

Those tactics intertwine with Sarah Palin's baldfaced attempts to exploit her own child. This has accelerated in the past few days.  It used to be that pols kissed the babies in the crowd. Now she sells her own baby to the crowd.  Words cannot express my feeling about that.  Family ought to be private and insulated.  Do we see Obama milking his grandmother's ill health, speaking to the press?  There is SUCH a difference.  One is cheap.  The other is class.

And why was Palin not talking about autism on day one of the campaign?  Why must she show her Toddler at every photo op?  Mention their love at every speaking opportunity?  I want to see Sarah and Todd Palin in 10 or 20 years, as they deal with the problems of autistic teenagers and young adults.  Tell us how much you know about this subject then.  Not now. Sarah, you don't know jack. Not yet.

Returning to policy, when Palin says they will spend $3 billion a year for five years - does that not fly in the face of John McCain's contention that he will take a hatchet to the US federal budget?  What is the McCain position on health care in general?  It preserves most elements of a private system, one that is not working for millions of Americans.  It is nice to see some compassion emerge from the McCain/Palin ticket, but it is too little, too late, and certainly ingenuous.

What's more, Palin is only now parroting Obama when she says, this is not a matter of budget, it is a matter of priorities.  She has finally got something right, but why vote for the copycat when you can vote for the original on the other ticket?

Finally, John McCain is trumpeting his defense of the middle class to just about every person in Pennsylvania.  He says that Obama will put the middle class through the wringer.  The Keystone State should be filled with sensible folk who can figure out who the true members of the middle class really are.  Hint:  It is not the ones with eight houses/investment properties, private jets, $150,000 wardrobes and $20,000 in cosmetics on the campaign trail.

For my money, this is turning into John the Obfuscater talking to Joe the Plumber.  John's reality is stuck somewhere between his head, his heart and his mouth.  Somewhere down deep, he knows how many houses they own, and how nice it is to fly in the private jet.  But these facts are frozen way down deep so that they never come out into the open.

It is my hope that a lot of plumbers know a clogged drain that is backed up with sludge when they see one.

- Arctic Eric

Discuss

Dismal Science Blues - Whose Economy Do We Want?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 22, 2008 3:10 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Economics, also known as the “dismal science” is a subject of consternation to many.  The word economy conjures up notions of a grand financial scheme, or some idea of thrift, cheapness or efficiency of action.  My very first economics course (40 years ago) defined economics as the study of the allocation of scarce resources to the satisfaction of infinite demands.

For example, there is an infinite demand for health because human beings wish to live as long as possible.  Some even dream of immortality through cloning, cryogenics or other means.  But the resources are finite.  Our bodies wear out and our life-spans are not limitless.  Medical science resources allocated to satisfying this infinite demand are also not infinite.  There are a certain number of doctors, nurses and healthcare professionals, and a limited number of clinics, hospitals and drugs.  So, ultimately, healthcare must be allocated.  The entire healthcare debate can thus be viewed as a subset of economics.

In the setting of this definition, our current Presidential choices offer very different views.  One pretty much parrots the old “supply-side” school of economics based on the Laffer curve (google it) and the disciples of Milton Friedman.  The emphasis is placed on monetary (not fiscal) policy, and goodness trickles down from the wealthy to the rest of us.  Among a growing number of economists, who have been studying mountains of data, this approach has largely been discredited.

The other fellow is focused on the distribution of income, how it has become skewed towards (tilted in favor of) the wealthiest segments of society.  History has shown, time and again, that horrible imbalances in wealth tend to unglue civilizations.  At some point, the more numerous have-nots rise up and re-balance the scales of wealth in some manner.  Often, violence and revolution is involved.  Ask the House of Romanov, if you can find anyone left these days.

If you cannot tell which candidate reflects the old way of thinking, and which one points to a true change in economic policy which returns power to the middle class, then just click the link below to see Barack Obama addressing an audience in Florida on the economy yesterday.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7682664.stm

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The Supreme Issue for True Conservatives

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 21, 2008 9:43 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

In this note, I am going to channel Alan Dershowitz.  But first, let me tell you why.

I am a regular reader of The Forward, which may be one of the oldest (if not the oldest) continually published national Jewish newspapers in America.  It used to only be printed in Yiddish (The Forverts), but I am now able to read it in my native language.  Forshteyn?  This week's edition highlights the Presidential race (no big surprise) and includes a column by Alan Dershowitz on the Supreme Court.

For Dershowitz's own words, go to the following site:
http://www.forward.com/articles/14390/

Dershowitz, as many may know, is a tough guy when it comes to Israel, the Jews and anti-semitism. His most recent book was "The Case Against Israel's Enemies:  Exposing Jimmy Carter and Others Who Stand in the Way of Peace".

One might think that Dershowitz would support a candidate who espouses unwavering support of Israel.  John McCain ought to qualify.  But, without naming names, Dershowitz focuses on the separation of church and state and what it means for the Jews.  His conclusion is crystal clear.

The next President must reverse the trend on the Supreme Court which is blurring the lines between church and state.  Faith is fine, but it is George Washington's promise to the Touro Congregation in RI which reflects the real basis of the First Amendment. That outlook, of our Founding Fathers, was forged in the history of England and its struggle with religious freedom.

The English fought (literally) between various forms of an established or disestablished state church.  The pilgrims and early English settlers fled from the strictures of establishmentarianism and the discrimination it embodied.  This issue was a prime catalyst that sparked the creation of the northern English colonies (New England).  The Puritans' quest for freedom to practice religion as they wished, was the reason they wound up at Plymouth Rock.

Four centuries later, religion is making a fierce comeback all over the world.  America opposes theocracies elsewhere (most notably in the Mideast). But over here, some Republicans have expressed the idea that liberals hate Americans who believe in God (yes, this statement was made recently by Republican running for congress in North Carolina). 

These same people see nothing wrong with bringing church into the public square, into the schools, into the military and into business.   And, somehow, they cling to these beliefs under the label conservatism, when in fact this outlook flies in the face of the founding fathers and the basis of our Constitution.  Church must be separate from state, with the high wall envisioned by Thomas Jefferson and others.

A new brand of disestablishmentarianism must be preserved for the benefit of Jews and every other religious minority. The Supreme Court will be the place where this belief is tested.

The next US President will arguably be able to place one or more justices on the Court, replacing moderates like John Paul Stevens (88), Ruth Bader-Ginsburg (75), Stephen Breyer (70) and David Souter (69).  For the protection of Jewish freedom, Dershowitz implies that a moderate (or progressive) President is the obvious choice. 

Dershowitz does not mention Obama, but the implication is hard to miss.  All one has to do is look at John McCain and his born-again VP, what's her name?  The one who does not believe in dinosaurs? Yes, THAT one.

Jewish voters who give McCain/Palin a chance to inhabit 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue are gambling with the precious Jeffersonian wall between church and state which has enabled unparalleled religious liberty in America over the past 200 years.  If we want to preserve that liberty, a true conservative will vote for candidates who will maintain that protection in the law. 

- Arctic Eric

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Who's Got the Mo? Big Bad John or B.O.?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 20, 2008 10:28 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Friends

With 15 days left until blastoff, some in the Republican camp are trumpeting a change in direction, a new wind in the sails for John McCain.  It is said that McCain has regained the momentum, the big "Mo".  Really?  Well, there is a grain of salt to their contention.  Some poll sites show a minor movement towards McCain.

"538" shows a 0.6 point shift (Obama up by 6.6 points and now only 6 points), over a 10 day period.  At that rate of climb, McCain will pull even with Obama in another 100 days. Or give John and Sarah the benefit of the doubt - if they can somehow accelerate the momentum, the gap can be closed in 50 days, or maybe even 25, if Obama's campaign implodes for some reason.  But 15 days, at this rate, would be a mathematical imaginary number.

"Pollster.com" shows Obama leading with margins from 4 to 9 points in all recent polls (Rasmussen minimum at 4, Gallup maximum at 9). The current spread is 5.7 points (49.3 to 43.6) which is narrower than one week ago. However, Pollster reports that polls over the past three days have showed a leveling out, with rough balance among several polls.  My guess is that the "ground game", the advertising advantage and the Powell endorsement all have something to do with this.  If I were McCain and this was Las Vegas, I would not bet the ranch that these kind of gaps can be closed in another 15 days.  But of course, anything is possible.

To gauge the wind and figure out if this leveling off is real, let's look at some other indicators of "mo".  Consider five human beings and their very recent actions - and a last factor, the fourth estate (known in modern parlance as the press).

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Happy Days Are Here Again? Not Yet. But Look Up at the Moon

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 14, 2008 3:26 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Did you breathe a little easier yesterday?  Stock market up 11%.  No blaring catastrophes on the news. The G7 ministers offer soothing advice and common action. John McCain is telling his crowds to cool it. North Korea will let nuclear inspectors in.  Obama revealed a fresh economic recovery plan.  Paul Krugman earned the Nobel Prize in Economics.  Jewish people are celebrating their Thanksgiving (aka "Sukkot").

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Is America Angola or the Land of Lincoln?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 12, 2008 12:11 PM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Friends

Yesterday, Christopher Buckley joined the ranks of the Recovering Republicaholics. The signs are encouraging and the polls are looking good.   But are we deluding ourselves?  This election is not yet decided, not by a long shot.

One possible outcome is NO election at all.  Look at the timing of the current economic meltdown and ask the question WHY NOW?  Is it conceivable that the US government might use economic catastrophe to derail the electoral process?  What is the chance that Bush43 will declare some sort of emergency, postponing the national election until such time as things "settle down"?

Unfortunately, all the elements of such a plan may be falling into place.  Read the Alternet article cited below:

Thousands of Troops Are Deployed on U.S. Streets Ready to Carry Out "Crowd Control"
http://www.alternet.org/rights/101958

Members of Congress were told they could face martial law if they didn't pass the bailout bill. This will not be the last time.

Is this paranoia?  Let's hope so.  In the meantime, send letters to your elected representatives asking them to resist the march towards fear.  We must reject the false security of a posse maintaining order, at the expense of the rule of law.

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Will the Real Terror Threat Please Stand Up?

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 5, 2008 11:03 AM EDT

Linked to groups: The Passaic County Green Party, Pequannock DFA, Passaic County DFA, BlueWaveNJ, DFA County Committee Project, NJ for Democracy

Linked to campaigns: Obama for America

Friends,

She is showing her mettle with right-up-to-the-minute original thinking, demonstrating her unquestionable ability to preside over the United States Senate and to step in, should events require, to be the next leader of the Free World.  Well, whatever that term means these days, because who is to say that we are really free, and many would dispute that America leads anything anymore.

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