The Train is Not Far From the Station, Now

Written by: Eric Weis on Oct 30, 2008 2:55 PM EDT

If you are like me, you are a nervous wreck approaching Election Day, now 113 hours away as I write these notes.

The polls have consistently been showing a red, Democratic advantage. But somewhere down deep, after two nail-biting (stolen?) elections, it is hard or impossible to believe that the American neo-Conservative agenda that has held the world hostage is now on the verge of going down to defeat.  The ghosts of Alf Landon, Tom Dewey, and yes, even John Kerry, haunt this election.

For a historical perspective:

1936, Alf Landon was predicted to beat incumbent FDR by a whopping margin, 57 to 43 points.  That poll was published on October 31st, based on 2,000,000 postcards submitted to The Literary Digest.  The poll was wrong.  FDR was returned to office.  Remember that it was the time that storm clouds were brewing in Europe.

1948, NY state Governor Thomas E. Dewey was ahead of unpopular incumbent Harry Truman by 5 - 15 points leading up to the election. And yet on election day, Truman eked out a 5% win against Dewey (with Dixiecrat Strom Thurmond collecting 2% of the national vote).

2004, John Kerry.  The polls and predictions gyrated in the week leading up to election day.  In the four days leading up to 11/2/2004, the lead changed two times with Kerry on the bottom on 10/30, then on top 10/31 - 11/1 and then losing by a hair on 11/2.  But a close analysis of the strength of Kerry's support reveal that the states clearly in his column never exceeded 146 electoral votes.  Bush maintained a consistent and growing lead in "strong" EV throughout the entire period.

What lessons can be learned from these ghosts?

(1) The incumbent has fantastic power and appeal, when people go into the voting booth on election day.  The incumbent represents safety and security in an electoral process that always reaches the height of argument on Election Day. It is easy to revert to casting a vote for the President you know.  In 2008, there is no incumbent in the race (not even a Vice President, nor a President's son).  So throw this effect right out of the window. It is not relevant now.

(2) The strength of EV (based on predicted vote margin) can be a good measure of outcomes.  At the moment, Obama is considered to have 254 "strong" electoral votes, not quite enough to get to 270 (only 16 away) and down from his peak of 264 strong EV.  The difference is Wisconsin, where the race seems to be tightening (10 EV).  It is now in the "leaning Democratic" column. Obama's strong numbers have been fairly consistent for the past week (254 - 264). On top of his strong numbers, there are 121 weak or barely Democratic EV to be collected from nine states.  McCain would have to "run the table" of these states to take away the 16 needed by Obama to get over the top.

On the other side, McCain's strong EV has been trending down over the last week, from a high of 134 to 118 as of today.  He has lost Arizona and Mississippi, now leaning Republican, but not sure.  Who, in their right (Republican) minds would ever have imagined close races in McCain's home state, or in the heart of the Red South?

Well, I am the eternal pessimist. I have to force myself to adopt an optimistic viewpoint.  But with 113 hours to go, unless a huge late October surprise erupts to unsettle Americans and take their minds off the economy, it sure looks like the Blue Train is going to get into this station first, on Track #1.

Meanwhile, for a look at how the Conservative punditocracy is reacting, here is a Huffington Post column featuring George Will.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/george-will-castigates-mc_n_139210.html

Tonight, I make phone calls to Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado or wherever else the campaign wants me to call.  I hope that readers of these blogs, essays, are going out to do the same thing.  Keep your head down and pump for the finish line like you are Usain Bolt trying to set a new world record. 

And if you by any chance remain undecided, just imagine what your children will say when they ask who you voted for.  Our kids, the young of America, strongly want Barack Obama to be their next leader.  A Presidential poll by the Weekly Reader (which has been successful 12 out of 13 times in the past) shows that kids in grades K - 12 believe Obama will win in a landslide, 55 to 43%.  That poll has been said to reflect the views of people in their own homes, speaking in front of their children.

Think positively.  Reject fear. Isn't that how kids naturally act?  We could take a lesson from them.

- Eric

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Location: Wayne, NJ 07470