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Pulse Poll: Counting votes and Fake votes
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Over the past few weeks, we here at DFA have fielded many questions related to how we are using the 2nd and 3rd place votes and to the security we had in place to deter any fraudulent voting. Charlie asked me to explain these two topics, so here it goes.We decided to ask for 2nd and 3rd place votes as a way to get a better feel as to who you supported after your first choice. It was obvious from before the poll even began that we would get a good number of votes for Al Gore. In fact over 38,000 people did, and since it now appears Gore will not be in the running, we can see who those people may vote for in their states primary. Those Gore votes end up going to: Edwards: 30%, Obama:18% and Kucinich: 15%.
Many of the questions about the other choices were wondering if we were going to use IRV (instant runoff voting) to determine a winner. Although while our poll winner was crowned solely on first place votes, our poll results page allows one to simulate an IRV scenario. (Interestingly enough, you have to remove all but Kucinich and Edwards to get one candidate above 50%. Kucinich wins 51% to 49%)
On the security side of things, several attempts where made to steer the poll in a certain direction with fraudulent votes. Twice one candidate had huge spikes that when investigated were obviously not unique people, but computer programs written to submit votes. All the votes were coming from the same ip address and the email used had a counter on it to make the email unique. (something like abc01@gmail.com abc02@gmail.com and so on) Obviously we removed those votes as soon as we determined them fake.
In the end, we found just under 1% of all votes had an invalid email address, so we are confident we caught any fake voting that would have caused significant changes to the poll outcome.
Pelosi now says impeachment will affect the House's,"productivity."
By that she means they'll have less time for caving in to Bush.
With all of the Gore votes coming from write-ins, the IRV anaylsis doesn't work. I doubt if Gore got too many write-ins as a second or third choice. Thus, if you are truly interested in an accurate portrayal of the DFA voters, you'll do the poll again...this time you should include Gore as a candidate. The IRV will better reflect where people stand if you do it that way. Just a suggestion...
Let's see ..hmmm...tough choice.... IMPEACH Cheney or -- get our troops home as fast as possible! No brainer.
WHY Musharriff did what he did:
There's a 'small war' going on in his country, with the Pakistani Taliban on the Pakistan/Afghanistan border...(somebody tell George , oh and our media)
The conflict in Swat (Pakistan) is especially troubling to the government because it marks the first time the government's authority has been challenged in a North-West Frontier Province…militants control three of the valley's seven districts … the Pakistani Taliban" new offensive —killing 20 soldiers and wounding 30…..The military responded with a major operation against the militants,…Fighting since then has killed as many as 100 militants and 30 to 50 security forces, http://www.washingtontimes.com/article/20071105/FOREIGN/111050059/1003
UPI) -- South Korea's Defense Ministry on Monday announced its 210 soldiers serving in Afghanistan would be recalled before presidential elections next month.
Taliban Seize Control of Third W. Afghan District
John,
The IRV works fine. Almost 5000 people wrote in Gore for 2nd choice and 3000 for 3rd that did not write him in as number 1.
I want to go on record as having no questions or complaints about the pulse poll.
I just received an e mail from Senator Reid that he will oppose Mukasey. Not sure if this is new news or old news.
A clear and ubnderstnadable exposition of the vote counting process
Question: why wasn;t this known to us while voting? Instead, we vioted in the dark, not knowing what use was to be made of 2nd and 3rd place votes. Wasn't clear whether 'bullet" voting would make a difference or what. I disocvered that if yoiu dragged the same icon into all three spots, you could not send in your vote, but if you wrote in your candidate's name for choices 2 and 3, you could submit and vote.
Should not have had to learn this by trial and error, and should have known in advance what chices 2 ans 3 implied in the vote count.
And It/s still not clear whether write-ins for a candidatate who did have an icon ever registered anywhere at all.
Tue, 11/06/07
4:54 pm
Reply to this
I want to go on record as having no questions or complaints about the pulse poll.
************************************************
And I want to go on record as having never expected to fully agree with Sitka on two separate matters in the span of a few days . . . . . . but I do - lol.
And, etc. etc.
Tom,
We asked simply to rank the candidates in the order you wanted. How does how we count the votes change your determination on who you are voting for?
Also writing in the same person into 2nd and 3rd place does no good. Since when they are still in the race your first place vote is counting so your 2nd and 3rd are not counted. Then when you remove your candidate you are removing all 3 votes.
"And It/s still not clear whether write-ins for a candidatate who did have an icon ever registered anywhere at all. "
Not sure I follow that one. The only people that had images of them where declared candidates.
just received an e mail from Senator Reid that he will oppose Mukasey. Not sure if this is new news or old news
Alas it's no news. Reid has counted noses, and knows there's enough Democratic cowards/traitors to confirm.
This way, he won't have to take the heat for not confirming, and can say he tried.....................
He should refuse to bring it up for a vote.
One issue that I've wondered about is how this poll actually represents the opinions of DFA *members* - however you define members.
Obviously DFA benefits from lots of new people on their email list, but I don't feel that the winners of this poll are really indicative of the actual DFA community.
When this poll was first underway, before it made the rounds outside of the existing DFA mailing list and blogosphere, there was a clear Edwards lead. A few days later, the Gore and Kucinich people discovered the poll and heavily altered the results. I'm surprised Ron Paul's people didn't join in as well!
It's really clear that Edwards would have been the obvious DFA endorsement. Oh well....
Hey Dan,
We're going to release the results very soon- and you'll get a glimpse of the results in a lot fdiffernt ways. I think you'll be surprised.
-Ilya
Why would you have a write-in option along with all the declared candidates but then later decide that write-ins won't count unless the chosen one actually declared?
In normal votes with integrity, write-in votes count as long as they are made by legitimate voters. All of Gore's votes should count.
Keep in mind this is someone who is supporting edwards and believes gore ought to declare or say he's not running. but a vote is a vote. and you can't change the rules or make them up as you go along. For integrity, the rules that exist at the beginning of the vote hold.
This vote is ridiculous and DFA blew it.
David A. Stevenson
Tue, 11/06/07
5:07 pm
Why not? could it be the candidate that you want to win actually won? The legitimacy of a vote shouldn't be related to the outcome but to principles of integrity. And this vote lacks integrity.
See my comments on the last thread as to why. DFA has a blackbox problem. No paper trail. I have no confidence in this vote. You can't make up the rules as you go along.
Tim:
If I remember correctly, the rule was that if no candidate had a national majority, then DFA would send "recruitment emails" (?) on a state-by-state basis for each state's winning candidate. How will that work for the states that went to Al Gore? It doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to recruit more support for a candidate who isn't running.
What is so ironic is that DFA, which had been a leading org on electoral reform and against blackbox voting, set up a vote that is fraught with voting integrity problems. What the heck are you guys paid to do?
DFA screwed up with this and failed to deal with the problems we've been raising all along. I'm a DFA member from the beginning and I'm very disappointed. This is going to be the laughing stock of the Internet. I wouldn't be surprised if the MSM picks it up.
A good article at Kos on todays circus in the House of Reps. It is saying that Dennis can keep bringing up this Res., or anyone else. Maybe some of the co-sponsors might give it a go.
This was a lot fun. Thanks Tim and all.
Hey Indy Steve,
Just a quick response to the following:
In normal votes with integrity, write-in votes count as long as they are made by legitimate voters. All of Gore's votes should count.
I've been a poll watcher in Illinois so I can only speak from that experience. The process in Illinois was that for a write in candidate's votes to be counted, that candidate must have filed a letter of intent to be a "write in" candidate. The ballot access threshold was much lower since s/he wasn't on the ballot, but it wasn't non existent.
In our model, we were willing to consider any other write in candidate who declared an intent to run for the nomination before our polls closed. Our ED, Arshad, even sent a national email about the tremendous support for Gore looking for an aswer as to whether he was seeking the nomination. And, we sent out an email explaining that only declared candidates could be endorsed.
I appreciate your feedback. But, ultimately, despite the wishes of many members in the DFA community, as well as the Draft Gore efforts, the Vice President remains undeclared for the Presidency - so while you'll see his vote totals, they can't count towards a potential endorsement.
-Ilya
16.
Adam Atlas
Why not? This is a grassroots activism baby....we're not raising or spending millions of dollars. The Draft Gore effort can use help too. We have many states putting Al Gore on their ballots and that takes much shoe leather!
Time for
a COOL
change,
Gore
2008
Be well all!
Those Gore votes end up going to: Edwards: 30%, Obama:18% and Kucinich: 15%
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leaving a whole lot of votes still unaccounted for (but I'll wait), and a clear large grassroots support for Al Gore who might well "win" CA on Feb 5th
but if this was just a vote by anyone who would give an e-mail address why was it called a vote for a "DFA" endorsement
18.
Indy Steve
Tue, 11/06/07
6:06 pm
What has happen to your Hoosier Hospitality?
And I want to go on record as having never expected to fully agree with Sitka on two separate matters in the span of a few days . . . . . . but I do - lol.
The only thing I remember disagreeing with you about was just one cheerleading post for the Democratic Party. Those kind of posts will draw a response from me every time.
Reid has counted noses, and knows there's enough Democratic cowards/traitors to confirm.
This time he gets to play the good cop.
deaniac isn't going to like this but once again I will compare this to an Iowa caucus and do the math for you in terms of allocation of delegates (which is the number reported to the press, not the raw numbers at sign in)
major difference, Gore can accumulate delegates
16.
Adam Atlas
Adam,
Linda #22 is correct.
California Draft Gore
You can help by making your contribution
HERE: http://www.actblue.com/page/california4g...
or you can sign up as a signature gathering volunteer
HERE: http://www.california4gore.org/
the numbers on the new thread are interesting
The Good: Clinton comes up Irrelevant.
The Absurd: Dennis the menace.
Who Actually Believes the guy WITH NO INTERNATIONAL experience, relationships or boots-on-the-ground Negotiating skill and NO LEADERSHIP will be the Democratic nominee? Who imagines: Republicans would cross over to vote for HIM? lol
THIS Poll: nothing more than cute. In the Real World: people tabling for Other candidates have told us they have decided to join us. Minorities: Already ARE supporters --but pollsters have FAILED to call/Ask/Find out. Who are they switching to/quiet supporters of: Bill Richardson. Pollsters --and, apparently, DFA voters: gonna get a surprise --his supporters aren't available when they call --we're on-line blogging, networking --or away tabling. Mainstream media: owned by Republicans --keep pushing /get their reporters to talk about non-stop --desperately hoping Clinton will be the nominee --the one they Can beat. They way Don't want Gov. Richardson --for plenty of good reasons.
Millions --don't hear slick hedging, dumb cracks, UFO info. Center-mainstream middle Can/ have Looked at his record. Black and Latino voters: couldn't care less what Republicans and DFA-voters want.
26. s/b happened
Jon Tester is now talking about the farm bill. I like Senator Tester. I like say that too.
I just hope Gore tells us *one way or the other* soon, whether or not he's running.
Indy Steve
Personally, I'm concerned about all those freeper types who are now going to show up at our local activities. And my phone ringing at all hours of the night.
33. s/b saying
What we are seeing here with our votes is exactly a reflection of the situation with the national primaries. Is one candidate going to 'win' all of the primaries with 25-30% of the vote or even 20% and be the Democratic nominee for president? They may win the nomination but how many votes will they get in the Presidential election. 50% of the people have already said they will not vote for the Democrats percieved front runner at this time. I don't have any suggestions as to how to resolve this but I am concerned about the general election.
It strikes me that the one question we really need answered is...
Who were the candidates who received a bunch of fake votes?
And were you able to trace where they came from (i.e., from the campaigns of those people, right-wing saboteurs, or another source)?
Now that would be interesting to know... and it would influence my decision a lot.
Come on, DFA-- fess up. Do we know anything about this?
However, Gore is not a candidate so that would be pretty pointless.
The media whores all of the other candidates around, so why not let Dennis be whored around for a little bit?
I like so many Gore supporters used the other category to write in his name all three times with the one vote to overstate my preference and to protest his name not being on the ballot in the first place.. Had Mr. Gore's name had been on the ballot, then naturally he would be my first choice and I would have submitted my second and third choices which then would give proper IRV results.
What a bunch of whiners here! If their candidates had won in this poll we wouldn't even be hearing from them!
I say, whore Dennis around! I wish the other candidates had the guts to put forth proposals like his! This country sorely needs true, universal health care!
I'm on disability, and I just got a letter today telling me that the state of Minnesota will no longer be paying my Medicare medical insurance premiums retroactive to September 1st. This means that they're going to deduct $280.50 from my December monthly disabilty check ($187 for Sept and Oct. and $93.50 for November), leaving me with only $433 for December (I usuallly get a check for $714 a month). Merry Christmas and Happy New Year - NOT! I'm not sure how this family of 3 is going to make it, and I know I'm not alone. God help us all!
"(Interestingly enough, you have to remove all but Kucinich and Edwards to get one candidate above 50%. Kucinich wins 51% to 49%)"
This statement is untrue -- I tried removing all but the the top 4 according to National Polling -- leaving Edwards, Obama & Clinton -- and Edwards had 50.25%:
Former Senator John Edwards 50.25% 65216
Senator Barack Obama 34.91% 45313 Senator Hillary Clinton 14.83% 19253I think this is the most significant --- because in terms of chances at the nomination, it is going to come down to these 3.
While I realize the appeal of Dennis Kucinich to progressives -- he is genuine in his politics and has been consistent throughout the years, and we have to all respect that -- we also have t be realistic and recognize that he doesn't have a chance at winning the nomination, much less the general election.
John Edwards polls better than either Obama and Clinton in nationwide polling for election year matchups against any of the possible Republican candidates -- so the most effective campaign strategy that DFA could follow would be to endorse the clear favorite among the nominees with a realistic chance.
These numbers show that to be a winning strategy.
Richardson gave up the ghost tonight on "Hardball" when he said that Kucinich's move to impeach Cheney is a waste of time and that the Congress should concentrate on "Real Things" and that he would vote No on it out of protest!
He should pull out of the race now as he's just become irrelevant.
Abigail:
You are right to the point. I respect both Kucinich and Gore, but it's not about who is most progressive. It's about nominating the person with the best chance of getting elected (clearly NOT Clinton) who also has some progressive values and ideas.
John Edwards isn't perfect, but he fits that bill better than any of the others. He's speaking to a lot of class and economic issues that working and middle class people can relate to. He's not getting a lot of corporate money, so he has more freedom of action than some of the other candidates. And he has the great adv antage of being an angry white guy from the south.
I could see the much-discussed NASCAR dads voting for this guy. Also think Edwards/Obama would be a great ticket.
Both Gore and Kucinich are doing great work where they are. And neither has much hope of being nominated or elected. I think we need to be practical.
Anyone: what is "freeped"? What does it mean?
Pelosi has been a sad disappointment. On being sworn as speaker she said (just before heading over to the white house to lunch with bush) "impeachment is not on the table." That was a long time ago. This rogue adminstration has become much more open and flagrant in its disregard for the rule of law in the interval. What will it take for Pelosi et. al. to wake up?
Don't you realize what is going on all around you!
Are you so blind that you can't see what is happening inside the democratic party!
The popular media has an excuse!..They are stupid!...Progressives should know better!
The reason Kusinich won the pole is because the most millitant and the most get out the vote vanguard are the supporters of Dennis Kusinich!Â
Without these progressive militants the democratic party can't win a straw vote or an election!..They are the necessary element that will bring victory to the democrats in the November elections!
But if Kusinich is not nominated by the democrats, the Kusinich followers, who are the most principaled activists of all so called progressives, will take a hike and start a third party or will write in Kusinich's name in the general election on the democratic ballot!
It seems like a lot of SO CALLED progressives are victims of republican and media propaganda, that portrays Kusinich as a far out left wing nut case that cannot possibly win!
The truth is that they are afraid of him and his followers because he has everything it takes to win the general election and show them up as the weak compromising sell out opportunists that they are!
Fight FASCISM don't COMPROMISE with MEDIOCRITY!...Get behind the best man!Â
Get behind Dennis Kusinich!
Thank you for your insight here! We are supporting Kkucinich here in Nevada and the movement is growing along with the polls. Don't forget the ABC online poll Aug. 20 where Dennis won and then was disappeared. We just need to get the word out and connect with all these Kucinich supporters somehow. Any ideas how to do this? Take a look at all the states Dennis won..... Strength through Peace, Diana
I'm upset! I voted assuming this was instant runoff voting (IRV). I would have voted differently if I realized this was not IRV. Runoff voting is much more democratic and I hope future polls will be IRV or will have a runoff poll to decide the winner.
Dianne Smith, I am from Las Vegas and I am looking forward to the democratic debates that will soon be presented here!
I don't expect Dennis to be treated like the media front runners, but I am sure that he will shine and overcome the efforts to marginalize him!
I believe that it will be important for all of the Nevada supporters for Dennis to be at the debates and to express themselves loudly and enthusiasticaly on his behalf!
It would be interesting if once Dennis supporters are inside the area where the debates are being held that they would as a organized group put on "Kucinich for president shirts," so as to let the world know that Nevada is overwhelmingly for Dennis Kucinich for president!
If the organizers of this debate attempt to ignore Kucinich the audience at the debate should let it be known that they resent his exclusion, and attempts to marginalize him!
J. Eric Persun: Richardson said...Kucinich's move...is a waste of time.... [So] He [Richardson]should pull out of the race now ....
Now There's a Plan! LOL --A candidate's Entire career --qualifications --experience --knowledge --leadership: Reduced to Whether or No candidate "X" is PERFECT --in every utterance --topic --position! Because: YOUR opinion is ALL that matters!
That's The Ticket! If candidate "X" says A thing You don't AGREE with: said candidate should quit running --Get Out of the race! WE Must Have Perfection [Bang desk loudly] --too too likely, of course, Your opinion of "Perfection" WILL coincide --with All Others in the Party --left --right --center Idea of PERFECTION --and Libertarians, Greens, also Peace & Freedom voters --plus Republicans, doncha know, Moderates --right-wingers, extreme right-wing nutjobs --and All the folks who have/still want to shove one religion into Government. Piece-O-cake --finding THAT candidate, cuz we just get cranky if The One ISN'T Perfect --like Perfect Parents --like, well just Like YOU.
Does your Off-With-His-Head form of, uh, decision-making mean: ol Dennis now Hasta go stand in the closet --till election is over, for saying...something... about UFOs? LOL --Or, gosh: was That one OKAY with You? 'Scuse me: WHEN did we Choose YOU to decide???
Sheesh...WHEN do the Grown Ups take over?
Poppy,
The chronic support for Bush/ Cheney wars, the Democratic compliancy to Bush’s tantrums, their lack of courage to speak truth to power, and their sheer disregard for their constituent’s expectations after the 2006 elections, rubber stamping Bushes every dictatorial and imperialist wish highlights just how much we need a true Man like Denis Kucinich as a sane President in these CRAZY times!You believe that a young, perhaps hot-headed, idealist with no experience in government or business cannot hope to solve our problems which have long defied the best efforts of master politicians, judging success in practicing the art of government dependant on special skills acquired through long experience. That is such a bourgeois thought. Your theory is a perfect rationalization for reserving the functions of government to a traditional ruling class, with ties to big money.Unlike what you and most beltway Democrats fetish, we don't need someone with that sort of experience as a leader at all, as history has shown us that experience for these pundits means belonging boys club for the privileged, tainted by big money who would sell their souls to maintain the status quo, and that is precisely what we the PEOPLE don't want to see in the next President of the United States.How many elections and for how many more wasted years are we to wait until we see true change in this country, and the way it has been run, by utter tyrants and corporate prostitutes. These are the ones with experience. The people of this country are tired of politicians with experience who are as corrupt as they can come. Traditionally experience in government in the United States and many other western countries has meant experience in mismanagement, exploitation, stealing, lying, illegal wars for profit, and in the case of the current administration even overt and shameless treason. Far from solving the problems our experienced governments have been themselves part of, if not all of the problem. We need a breath of fresh air. And that my friend means someone with the list exposure to corruption as Kucinich has been.Voting for a candidate who will win if we’re lucky will give us another four years of the same; Vote for the candidate who should win and you help your country prosper.You shouldn’t be afraid to vote for the best candidate. If you and I vote our conscience others will follow.Imagine for once having a President with conscience…AraAn adult is a person that can make decisions and does not sit on the fence and talk out of both sides of their mouth!...
The centrists of the world are opportunists and wishy washy, they will try to figure out what way the wind is blowing before they jump off the fence and allign themselves with a percieved winner!
Centrists do not have any core beliefs that they subscribe to!
A centrist is a compromiser and a betrayer and is only for personal gain at the expense of partisans that are for something and against the opposite of what they are for!
Partisans make decisions, they take a stand and will fight for princiipals that they believe in! It is they that are ADULTS! ..It is the self centered centrists that are child like that believe that the world revolves around them
Centrists do not believe in anything! ...Except their personal self centered gain!
Centrists become corrupt!
The reason I am for Dennis Kusinich is that he Knows what he is for and what he is against!
Richard,Thank you for speaking up. I agree. I belong to a small group of politically active people who spoke of backing the person with the best chance of winning. I disagree. How are we ever going to have decent government if we always compromise and can't stand by our person to the end. And let's not be swayed by who laughs or who believes in UFOs. Does anyone have proof they don't exist?There are people out there who vote for the cute person, the person with the nice family, the person who is a man, the person who is a woman, and it goes on and on.Let's look at policy. And so what if Kucinich doesn't have foreign experience? I think I could do a better job than Bush. I'd find qualified people to help in my weak area. I feel Kucinich has the average Joe's concerns on the table and he is my man.
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By Monica Smith on Nov 6, 2007 4:17 PM ESTHoward Dean was first and remains first in our hearts.