religion matters--to both parties

Written by: Alan Willis on May 21, 2008 9:16 PM EDT

The Brookings Institute reprinted a finding of the Pew Forum on Religion in Public Life, to wit:

The bottom line is simple: if Barack Obama is the Democratic nominee, he will have to work hard to improve his standing among white Catholics. If he does not, even states that Democrats count on—such as Pennsylvania—may be up for grabs this November.

This could be true, but...what about the Republicans?

If John McCain is the nominee--and it's almost impossible to imagine otherwise at this point--he will face significant difficulties with the Religious Right, a mainstay of the Republican Party.  So, what solidly Red States could swing? Mississippi and South Carolina, for staters. Mississippi and South Carolina? How? In both states (and in other Southern states) the Religious Right makes up a signifcant part of the Republican base.  Consider the recent special election in Mississippi's 1st Congressional District, which went to the Democratic candidate, Travis Childers, turning a seat that had been Republican for over a decade.  And, statewide, one must consider the role of race in a contest between McCain and Obama.  Obama has won the African American vote at an astounding rate, and both Mississippi and South Carolina have a large percentage of African American voters.

So, what does all this mean about swing states and safe states.  It means this: don't plan on it. It could very well turn out that safe states swing in ways no one would have imagined four years ago.

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